1-2 Argentina. Exact Score. We Called It.

Argentina are in the World Cup final. England are going home. And 48 hours before kick-off, we had the scoreline written down: 1-2 Argentina. That is the call. That is what happened.

What We Had Right

Seven from nine markets landed. Exact score, match result, to win a half, over 2.5 goals, over 16.5 shots, over 2.5 cards, over 18.5 fouls, half-time result, Argentina to score. The full card.

The core logic was simple. Argentina were the best attacking side in the tournament, averaging 2.8 goals per game across six wins, and England had conceded in five of those six matches coming in. The numbers pointed one way.

Tom

Argentina have scored 17 in six, averaging 2.8 per game. England concede a goal a game. The numbers say Argentina score here.

But this was not just about Argentina. The call was always that England would make them earn it, and they did. Kane and Bellingham do not go quiet in a semi-final. That was Sheila's read from the start, and it held.

Sheila

Messi's last World Cup, defending champions, and England's defence hasn't kept a clean sheet in four of six games. I'm going 1-2 Argentina.

A 1-2 reflects the competitive nature of this fixture rather than a rout. That was the framing before a ball was kicked, and it is exactly what the game delivered.

The One We Got Wrong

First-half goal. We were hard yes on that, and the half-time scoreline came in 0-0. Sheila called it a near-certainty. Tom said the combined attacking quality of the two sides was the highest of any semi-final he could think of. Both wrong.

It happens in football. A World Cup semi-final between two defensively organised sides, with everything at stake, can absolutely produce a cagey opening 45 minutes. We should have weighted the occasion more heavily than the attacking averages. The data pointed to goals before the break; the game produced a chess match instead. We own that miss cleanly.

The half-time result call landing as a draw was cold comfort. We had away or draw covered, and the draw is what came in. But we were wrong on the goal, and there is no spinning that.

What It Means From Here

Argentina are in the final. Six wins from six, 17 goals scored, and now a place in the biggest game in international football. Messi's tournament has been everything we said it would be, and Scaloni's 4-3-3 has not dropped a point.

England performed. They scored. They made Argentina work for every inch of it, exactly as we called. But the attacking variety on the other side was the difference, and it was the difference we identified.

The final is next. Whoever Argentina face, the attacking output and tournament consistency make them the side to beat. We will have that call ready. Watch this space.